Chattels:

the following is an excellent concise description of the state of affairs in Iraq: 
"Embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki despite facing massive opposition to re-election persists in his efforts for a third term while Sunni extremists and Iraqi Sunni tribes gain control of large swaths of land and Kurds threaten to secede."

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Enorrste:

Article: 
"Barzani: We seek to determine the day of the referendum on independence and the schedule will only take months"

...based on this article...a process has been initiated to separate from greater Iraq by the Kurds. 

It may take several months. 

Suppose that the Kurds are successful and that they vote to leave.  It is clear from other articles that such a vote would be successful.  What then? 

The answer is this:  62 total votes will leave the Iraqi Parliament, leaving only 266 total members in the Iraqi Parliament.  This would mean that it would take only 134 votes for a candidate to form a new government rather than the current 165 votes. 

Now ask this question: 
who would benefit from the Kurds leaving the greater Iraqi union? 

Answer:
Maliki.

Maliki will stall until the Kurds make their decision. 

The only way in which they would elect not to leave greater Iraq is if they are part of a unified government without Maliki. 

That prognosis is highly unlikely at the present time. Therefore, Maliki would be shrewd to sit back and let events unfold. 

By law he is in the first position.  By practice he has shown that he might take up to 10 months to form a new government. 

By Barzani's statement, if Maliki is given that opportunity, he will leave greater Iraq.  Maliki's response? 

"Don't let the door hit you on the way out." 

Maliki is in a fairly good position at this point. 

He cannot be summarily removed. 

A large chunk of his opposition is about to bolt. 

Time is on his side.

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Millionday:

supply and demand is what a market economy is...the economic reforms are going well and are not being held up due to security... the foreign investors are bringing jobs and also moving forward as expected in their contracts for infrastructure. 

the result of any slow down was from the media reports-- those are the negative insights to what is going on and what is being done about it... the oil export is ready and willing able etc. and the stabilization of the reality of the monetary reform is supported by the reserves held by CBI. so as we see the one thing we all love...PROGRESS!

Enorrste:

Article:  
"Upper: Sadrists to nominate Abdul-Mahdi of the self-denial and the crowds waiting to see prime minister"    
Wikipedia quote: 
"Abdel-Mahdi is a member of the powerful Shi'a party the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, or SIIC. Long based in neighboring Iran, the group opposed a United States administration while holding close ties with the other U.S.-backed groups that opposed Saddam Hussein, including the Kurds and the Iraqi National Congress. 

He is a trained economist who left Iraq in 1969 for exile in France. He worked for French think tanks and edited magazines in French and Arabic. He was educated in France, and is the son of a respected Shiite cleric who was a minister in Iraq's monarchy."

If...correct that there is a compromise candidate "in the works" Mahdi may well be that person. 

The question is whether Maliki has "signed off" on Mahdi or not.  One thing is clear:  he is certainly well qualified for the job. Unfortunately, I still think Maliki is going to do whatever he can to retain his position.

Time will tell.

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Poppy3:

GETTING GOOD NEWS ... ALL FITS WELL WITH THE NEWS. CONTACT IN BAGDAD SAYS THEY HAVEN'T HEARD A SHOT FIRED SINCE THE CONSULTANTS AND ADVISER HAVE ARRIVED IN BAGDAD. 

ISIS BACKING OFF. 

HEARD FROM THREE PEEPS CNN REPORTED THAT IRAQ CONSTITUTION SAYS THEY MUST COMPLETE GOI AND PM ALONG WITH COMPLETE FINANCIAL REFORM BEFORE JULY 15.

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Millionday:

it appears that a market economy is happening -- hmmm must not be a very successful group of terrorists...let me say this -- there is more money going into Iraq and also the investors are also encouraged...follow the money -- no one puts money they dont have with no return in the future...

Stryker:

Quote: 
"Informed sources revealed today, on Thursday, said a meeting of the National Alliance will be held this evening, in order to reach a final agreement on the choice of the next prime minister and other electoral benefits." 

It looks official the decree was put forth by the Vice President of Iraq today and the first Parliament Session will by next Tuesday July 1, 2014...

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Enorrste:

...none of us can confidently say what is happening, since the media stories conflict with themselves in many cases. 

However, we may have an inkling of knowing where this is heading. Maliki has promised to attend, stated he would step aside if a candidate who could defeat terrorism is named, and has promised Kerry that a new government would be formed on or before July 1 (he clearly can’t keep this promise). 

At the same time his National Alliance has clearly indicated that it will not accept Maliki for a third term, and that it wants to nominate Mahdi for the position of Prime Minister. Najafi has stated that he would accept this nomination. The National Alliance was also confident that their “new” nominee would be widely accepted.

The Kurds are adamantly against Maliki but are desirous of participating in making a new government. I suspect that they will want the Presidency again, as they have had it for 8 years. Therefore, I conclude, surprisingly enough, that Maliki may actually be replaced and that a new government will be created with Mahdi as the Prime Minister and Barzani as President. I realize that this runs totally counter to what I have learned about Maliki. Therefore, I hold this caveat: Maliki may stand firm, even against what is apparently a strong attempt to remove him from within his own National Alliance. 

If he steps down, we could see some significant changes in Iraq, to our benefit. On the other hand, if he balks, which the media reports indicate is still a possibility, then there could be a stalemate created that could last for months.

I would love to see Mahdi take over, if for no other reason than to see Maliki go away. But there is a part of me that says that Maliki won’t go away, no matter what. The next few days will prove to be interesting, to say the least. 

Since I have covered both possibilities here, it is unlikely that I will be wrong. One or the other will win out. I suspect we will know which within 2 weeks.

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American Contractor:

PM Nuri Maliki turned down the emergency government and will be going with the Unity government just like he told Secretary of State John Kerry. The Iraqi Parliament will convene on Tuesday, 1 July. 

The Iraqi Parliament has 30 days to name a new Iraq President and then the President has 15 days to name a new Prime Minister. 

This will go into August before this is all said and done.

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TD:

Today i had a intellectual exchange with my friend over in the sandbox and thought i'd share some info:  Maliki emphatically states today that he will "follow the democratic process" and form a government.   he "claims' his party has majority and will not heed the advice of the Obama doctrine: "be inclusive and play nicely with all the kids". 

Maliki now seems to think of himself as "the Commander in chief" of all shiite's. The only way Maliki will go is if his own party topples him or he loses support from Iran.

I asked my friend for clarification of recent comments by Turki and the CBI. He indicates that much seems to be lost in translation and that the Governor was simply trying to assure "existing business interests and nations" of the CBI's continued efforts to keep monetary policy as stable as possible under the political pressures. 

Much concern raised by these "existing business partners" was ISIS looting more money, funds, etc. Turki was trying to assure people of Iraq's vast wealth "held outside Iraq".

BGG:

[I never have understood why Maliki seems so opposed to a revalue of the currency?]
He's an Iranian proxy - has been a "weak Dinar policy" guy from day one.  Should he manage (by some miracle) to stay - any RV you might see under him won't be the kind we have imagined...it will start much lower. JMHO.  He is ruthless and that is one way to get Iraq off the hook for cheap... most of the 3 zero notes would be off the market within
days. 

[with a new PM would you think we might see a higher exchange rate?]
IMHO - yes.

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Chattels:

Maliki is the current manifestation of what is fundamentally wrong in Iraq. Constitutionality, the rule of law, due process and fundamental fairness is necessary for all and not just the Kurds. The Kurds understand that which is why they couch every action on terms of the constitution.

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Enorrste:

If Maliki is ousted next week...I will be the first one to eat crow. 

There is no way Maliki is leaving next week, or the week after, or the week after that.  Time will tell. 

I have my seasonings ready if I have to eat crow, but I'd wager I won't have to. 

If/when parliament meets, Maliki will assert his right under the Constitution to form a new government. 

Then 30 days later, he will appeal to the same process he employed 4 years ago and got approval for from the Supreme Court.   

In other words, nothing will happen for at least another 45 days.

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Yesterday - 06/23/14

TerryK:

SO WHERE ARE WE WITH THE SITTING OF THE GOV. 

HEARD IT WAS TO BE DONE THIS AM. 

ALSO HEARD THAT MALIKI MAYBE THE PM AS ARRANGED WITH USA AND IRAN BUT THEN HEARING THAT HE IS NOT.  

A LOT OF SMOKE IN THE DINAR WORLD.  I AM THINKING THAT THIS IS OUR WEEK. 

SOURCE THIS AM IS REALLY EXCITED AGAIN BUT THEN SHE HAS BEEN EXCITED THE PAST TWO WEEKS.  MY SOURCE TOLD ME THAT THIS AM IS THAT THEY WANT THIS DONE BY 7/1.

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Poppy3:

TODAY IS THE 23rd OF JUNE SO WE ARE NOW DOWN TO JUST 6 -7 DAYS BEFORE TURKI AND THE PRESIDENT OF THE NEW ISX ARE TO OPEN IRAQ UP TO WORLD TRADE. THEY TOLD THE WORLD WHAT THEY WOULD DO AND WHEN IT WAS GOING TO BE COMPLETE SO OUR DAYS THIS WEEK SHOULD BE VERY REVEALING OF ACTIONS TAKEN. 

I FEEL VERY SURE THEY WILL TRY AND KEEP ALL POSITIVE ACTIONS AND COMPLETIONS VERY QUIET AS POSSIBLE AND THAT OUR NEWS MEDIA WILL KEEP UP THEIR HIDDEN AGENDA OF PREACHING DESTRUCTION ON THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE MUCH NEGATIVE INFORMATION AS THIS PROGRESSES... JUST WATCH THEIR ACTIONS. IF YOU LISTEN TO THEM YOU WILL DEFINITELY BE DECEIVED.

Enorrste:

...it has been my view that Maliki was holding off on allowing the float for political reasons. 

A weak dinar policy meant that his opponents would not reap the benefit of a rising dinar, assuming they were holders.  My statement Maliki will allow the float is consistent with his own statements and those of Turki.

Turki said just a few days ago that the dinar would enter the world stage late this year or early next year. 

He would not say that without Maliki's approval.  Maliki also has stated that he wants the country to prosper and enter the world market. 

The fact that he has not done much thus far to make that happen doesn't mean that it won't happen. 

He actually has a great incentive to allow the float, once he is re-established with a third term. 

He will become the ultimate hero.

It has always been my view that Maliki is shrewd, not dumb. 

He does things because he himself benefits in some way...his placement of Turki in the CBI slot was for a reason that has benefited him. 

We have never heard him say that the plan was not going to happen (raising the value of the dinar). 

Never. 

But we have heard Turki endorse the plan generally. 

So, on god's green earth I see that Maliki will slowly evolve, to his own benefit, and allow Turki to move to Article VIII and the dinar to float.

Article: "Experts: Delete the zeros from the dinar increases its strength against the dollar and easy to draw a price policy"   I found this article to be extremely uplifting.  The parliamentary committee pulled off the gloves and told the "parking government" (i.e., not moving forward) that its weak reason for delay is not justified and will no longer be tolerated.  However, more importantly to me, is that they also stated that they will appeal to the constitution itself in an effort to get the ball moving forward.  The constitution is clear that the CBI is the ONLY department that has the authority to issue a new currency.  Implied in that is that the CBI also has the authority to change the value of the dinar, which is necessary before a new currency can be issued.  Therefore, what we are seeing is that the parliament is getting behind the CBI and...TELLING the government to "butt out" of the issue and let the CBI do its job.

I like it when two sides have the courage to step up against the government directly like this.  It means that SOMEONE is finally getting the courage to "tell it like it is" to Maliki.  This may have some meanings under the surface:  Maliki may be losing control and may not have a clear majority for the upcoming election.  Furthermore, it may be obvious.  After all, this argument from the parliament could have been presented months ago.  So why is it coming out now?  I suggest that there is political movement that is running against Maliki, and that people are getting more courageous because of it.  Whether it forces Maliki to move is, of course, another matter altogether.