It appears people are wrongly being told that the Iraqi Oil Law (the HCL) has been passed. That is not true! What HAS happened is the Kurds and the Iraqi central government, have come to full agreement on the final wording of the HCL and the Iraqi Council of Ministers have voted to accept it. The next step will be for the HCL to be voted into law by the Iraqi Parliament. The Iraqi Parliament is on a one month vacation until January 2015. Now they, the Iraqi Parliament, are authorized by the constitution of Iraq to reconvene in an emergency session to pass the 2015 budget which they have said they will do this month of December. Any other laws such as the HCL will be addressed upon the opening of the new session in January of 2015.
Now…listeners of Phoenix Rising Radio will know that I have consistently said for years that I speculate that the Central Bank of Iraq’s action of moving to a new multi-currency backing basket with the new associated rate will happen BEFORE the HCL is in effect. Also, I speculate that the only thing needed at this time for the successful action of the CBI to announce the new backing basket is the passing of the 2015 budget. As stated, the passing of the 2015 budget is to be done this month and will go into effect January 1st 2015.
So all in all it appears the window of change to Article 8 compliance, by the Central Bank of Iraq and the associated rate change is open at this time. Remember…I am still watching for the temporal marker of “The Shot Heard Around the World” which will be the LAST marker seen before the CBI implements the change.
Brace for impact.