Tlar, thank you so much. I haven't heard anything lately about those committees set up to revisit the budget and pull out all the Maliki b.s. -- do you know anything about that, Tlar?
Hopefully, the budget is done now with all necessary revisions and only needs a vote.
Tlar, once again. Great post that is appreciated. Respectfully, I don't agree with you on two points.
#1 - August 8th is way too optimistic in my opinion IF I were going to specify a date. Love ya Tlar, :) but IMO there will be no "settled political situation" until new PM and his ministers and cabinet are voted in by Parliament--and I just don't see that being finished by August 8th.
#2 - IMO there is no "settled political situation" with ISIS running amock. Yes, I believe the Sunnis will resolve it relatively quickly after Mal is gone, BUT that will still take some time.
Turki had his hands full just dealing with counterfeit situation and getting to 2% spread, so I cannot imagine that he would risk ISIS being able to buy massive weapons through an RV that surely didn't need to occur until after ISIS' demise.
For nearly a year, I've expected this RV to occur around this time because of what I've gleaned through reading articles, etc, as everything seems to be dovetailing at this point (banking, smart cards, tariffs--with SFA in Sept) and I agree 100% with you that the RV is event driven.
The RV has always been event driven -- though trying to figure out which event or series of events will trigger the RV is like being in a dark room, blindfolded -- taking swipes at a pinata.
We do not disagree that this is the optimum time ... and I respect that you may be accurate about the rate ... but I just cannot get all worked up about August 8th, yet, as Iraq is a mine field of disappointing expectations ... as they just don't function in a logical way.
That's my 2 cents, my friend, and would welcome your thoughts on how Turki could possibly view just an elected PM as a "settled" government when Parl could vote it down and while ISIS is still a threat.
Blessings ~ DW.
Thanks tlar. Don't expect much news today as you say, but I am looking to see how quiet Maliki and his supporters are today. I think we can bank on him being done and if there isn't any of the usual posturing by them today then I think we can rest easy and look forward to tomorrow.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Tlar. They're moving at lightning speed, compared to the last 5 years I've been part of the dinar world. Thank God the Iraqi people are finally going to have the freedom and democracy they've been waiting for.
Very good Tlar, I love the way you put the forth coming events but must say DW raises some valid questions...thanks for the brain stimulation as there's much to think about over a cup of coffee...Cheers!
Takes lots of time to shift through information, and put together a conclusion.
No matter the date, we really are almost there, and appreciate everyone's efforts so very much.
Thank you, Tlar!
Good morning everyone.....great start for another good week, one more day...closer.
Everybody has thier own opinion of what is happing and what is about to. DW brings forth good concerns and tlar has good understanding of the articles that have been put forth.
We don't have to make any decisions because WE are not in the equation. All we have to do is wait. We are real good at that! Take this time to go over YOUR plans for cashin in and your steps to the rest of your future. When this thing hits(RV), it might be to late to start planning or mistakes can be made.
Go hug your kids and grandkids today and everytime you get a chance. I'm sure gonna plan on my grandkids being taken care of for a while, after RV . Ya'll, here on CC. matter to me ! see ya.
DreamWeaver, you asked Tlar but I hope you dont mind if I express my opinion.
If you do mind, please just dont read it.
You bring up some points that I have been thinking about as well.
As an optimistic-skeptic I believe as you do.
However I think Tlar is betting that the council of ministers has already been decided upon, regardless of if it is Mahdi or Chalabi.
There are indications based on presented articles that they have been meeting for a good while on this new government.
The most important thing here, and you talked about yourself, is the ISIS problem.
They dont have time to delay this any longer than absolutely necessary.
ISIS themselves have said they will return to Syria once Maliki is gone.
The sunni tribes have said they will force them out also.
The US have said they will not help Maliki dispel them as it would be seen has helping the Shia.
But a non-sectarian new Iraqi government, thats a whole other story.
The US can help a gov that is represented by all.
It wont be seen as devisive.
In other words, this is being setup to be resolved very quickly.
They say they will leave, the US will help force them out, and the sunnis will turn on them.
Not to mention the Peshmerga. It wont take long.
The PM and his cabinet will be released very soon.
I do not expect there to be a delay in between the naming of the PM and the forming of his cabinet.
Will all of them be put up for a vote in Parliament on the 5th?
Probably not but Massum and Jabouri arent playing around.
It wouldnt surprise me if sometime between the 5th to the 8th they will be presented for a vote.
And they will be voted in just as Massum and Jabouri were, quickly and without much here-to-fore.
They dont have time to waste.
The other reason and probably the biggest is they are broke.
That word should be capitalized.
And not the RV is in the budget thing, I mean money for them to operate and fight this incursion and get things going.
And I dont buy this ISIS robbing banks and stealing dinar.
The first Mosul story turned out to be bull to.
There have lots of articles stating there is no liquidity in the banks. Milliions of dinar in a single bank.
Sure some is dispersed around over these years to some groups who we probably dont want to have it, but that wont change. Most of those groups spend as they get it which means dollars, not a dinar that may be worth alot at some point.
Just my two cents.
The only delays of the last few weeks have been the constitutional restraints, which have been well within the outlined timeframes, and boxing in Maliki and eroding his support within the NA (ie state of law).
The other delay was the "feast" which will be over tomorrow.
If you dont think they are in a hurry, think about Ramadan.
Have you ever seen them do a fraction of what has been done this year!
That speaks volumes.
Thanks Tlar. Great summation of where we are.
DW. Turki said he would Not Hesitate to push the delete the zeros project forward. you do raise some interesting questions. But, I have to agree w Tlar that this is not going to drag out.
We are so very very close.
Thanks, Tlar, you summed it up very well. My only question has been asked a couple of times by myself and others but really hasn't been responded to, and maybe you don't know.
Are there assurances given to the NA that Badr's (or any other) bloc can pull a switcheroo and vote for the SOL once the voting commences.
Is it possible that this could be part of a ruse to think the NA now has the numbers and lead them into thinking the NA's candidate will win when in reality they vote for Maliki?
Just because they vote for NA in the bloc voting doesn't mean they have to come the actual vote in Parliament. Is there something Badr would have had to sign to lick his support in place?
I know this is kind of a reach and don't expect it to come into play but it would be good to have more certainty of the situation.
I don't believe Badr's bloc members are threatened because of immunity being lifted as that is the case with some other SOL members who are tied in closer to Maliki, but when you start throwing in Shakristani and Dawa's names in there it raises a bit of a red flag as I would expect some of them would be susceptible to prosecution once immunity if lifted after the vote.
As far as DW's comments go, I think ISIS is going to have their collective **** handed to them in short order. The writing on the wall is plain to see and we're already starting to see movement, leaders killed, ammunition brought over (can you say Hellfire missiles), and some heading for Syria.
Once Maliki is officially gone I think the motivation for them to fight will diminish as well as it will basically achieve what they're fighting for.
We've been storing up intelligence on them for a couple of months now and you can see that when we want to target someone (Baghdad Ali sp) we've managed to do it well. IMO this will ramp up quite a bit over the next couple of weeks.
The Aug 8th date seems to imply the last day constitutionally that is on the calendar for the 15 days to be up (and I know you know that DW).
How Turki reads a complete GOI is anybody's guess.
Will a new PM be enough or will having his full Cabinet and ministers in place be considered complete.
Knowing that the POR can appoint basically whoever he wants if the first nominee can't form his Cabinet or is voted down, the fact that there are two very reliable candidates for the post of PM, and the enormous rush to get all this done quickly and form the government, along with all the economic reasons to do this, I side closer to Tlar's timeline. Here's to urgency and smooth sailing!
I believe they will know the nominees before voting. I don't think Jourbori would have a vote if Maliki is a nominee. Even if he is the rest of parliament wouldn't vote him in and Masum could then choose Mahdi of Chalabi for a new nominee. I think we're in a good place either way.
I also believe that they already know who the next PM will be and the ministers have already been in the process of being selected! I read this in an article last week it was just one sentence that said they were in the process of selecting the ministers, just can't remember where.
Anyway it looks like Tlar put out the August 8th date because constitutionally that is when they must have the next PM selected, he is not saying it will RV by that date.
I always remember that Allawi said he could seat his goi within 48 hours so I do not believe it will take them another 30 days to do this! The budget is going back to Parliament also next week to be voted on as well so there are so many things lining up that we need to see!
Now IMO I do believe as long as the PM is set and the ministers do get voted in Parliament very shortly then we will see an increase in the value of the Dinar!
Hopefully by the middle of August they can accomplish the fully seated GOI. I also believe that Isis will be a moot point once the new PM is selected.
They have even said themselves that once Maliki is gone so will they!
Great post Tlar thanks again for sharing some great information!
Artices are now saying Maliki just wants a MP position as we all suspect just to keep his immunity. Other articles are saying he has pulled his name from the short list of PM's.
We know that al-Jaafari is in that list as well as Sharistani and Chalabi and Maudi.
When they go to vote al-Jaafari and Shahristani will be quickly dispatched because they too are unacceptable to the Sunni's and Kurds, leaving either Chalabi or Mahdi as the winner.
Both al Jaafari and Sharistani' blocks had really bad showings in the recent elections gaining only a couple of MP's each.
They have very little political support because of their association with Maliki and their abandonment of the SOL.
So both the SOL and the coalition have problems with them.
When it comes time to vote each member in the NA whether Coalition or SOL, will have one vote and that vote can only be cast toward one of the nominees on the list.
Maliki is out period by pulling his nomination unless he re-nigs again and wants the SOL to put him back on the list.
The SOL as a party has committed political suicide and as such will get little to no ministries in this new government.
The real shake up will come when their leadership leaves the country and in my opinion we are very close to that.
The bank records in Jordan and Qatar of theft by these guys have been there waiting on a moment like this for over a year and go all the way back to when they (Maliki and the SOL) tried unsuccessfully to burn the second floor of the CBI which is where the outgoing money transfers department exists.
Those records still exist along with where the money went showing bank account numbers and such. I am sure the forensics have been done sitting in files since 2009..
So the leadership of the SOL that has caused so much of the trouble in this process having just lost control through being the largest block, is screwed.
It is only a matter of time now. tlar
Tlar, let me ask a question.
The NA has supposedly nominated 5 candidates for PM.
Don't you think that the 5 is for consideration by the NA alone in order to vote and narrow them to 1 for the POR to identify/announce as the PM-in-waiting.
That 1 goes out and identifies all of his minsisters and the balance of the government positions he is asking for final approval on?
Comments here seem to have people thinking that 5 different guys will go out there and try to form a government and all come back for vote by parliment.
That would be total chaos.
Hey, "Duke" ... love seeing John when you post. One of my all time favorites.
Just to be clear about my post. It wasn't about date dragging out ... though I still believe August 8th is very optimistic considering this group of guys are more interested in crossing "t"s and dotting "i" s than rushing forward.
The point of my post was that Tlar and I do not see eye to eye on our interpretation of what Turki means by "settled" government.
Even if the PM and the entire government were elected and seated by August 8th, I'd still disagree with Tlar about Turki doing RV with ISIS still at large .. which will be the case as there is no way ISIS will be instantly handled on the same day the GOI is seated.
Just my thoughts. And sense I'm a very optimistic person, I'm in Tlar's corner on this one! :D Best thoughts, Big John, and all -- good points made. ~ DW
DW...you made some very valid points earlier. The fact is we just don't know exactly, precisely what Turki meant when he said "settled". But, we do know we are far closer than we have ever been in this investment.
For that, we should all sleep better at night, comtemplating what the future holds when Turki does make the change.
in the mean time, I appreciate each and every post. Thank you all
Thanks for your response but I'm still not getting an answer to my specific question. If you or anyone knows please Are there assurances given to the NA that Badr's (or any other) bloc can pull a switcheroo and vote for the SOL once the voting commences.
Is it possible that this could be part of a ruse to think the NA now has the numbers and lead them into thinking the NA's candidate will win when in reality they vote for Maliki?
Just because they vote for NA in the bloc voting doesn't mean they have to come the actual vote in Parliament. Is there something Badr would have had to sign to lock his support in place?
I may be wrong, but I believe that the POR is going to call on the NA to nominate their one candidate, and that person (and his COM) are going to get a yes or no vote.
This isn't a multiple choice vote.
But let's get some other opinions on this.
old, I'm not sure but I believe you maybe confusing the process of the NA and parliament.
When the NA hones the 5 to one, they will take the one to parliament.
Most likely it will be a two step process within the coalition. The coalition will first decide amongst themselves who they want probably by secret ballot, then they will present the nominees to the NA floor for an up or down vote with the coalition voting in locked step specifically for their guy.
So no matter who the SOL runs, if the coalition has over 90 MP's (half plus 1) all voting in locked step it is all over. It is my belief they will have way more than 90 but that is yet to be seen. So the SOL can really put up anybody they want.
It makes no difference.
The coalition in my mind is leaving nothing to chance on this.
There will be no vote until they are sure they have the numbers and have decided on their one guy to back.
The coalition is in process of sorting out their nominee internally within the coalition only, Chalabi or Mahdi.
That most likely will be done just as Kurds did it, secret ballot within coalition not the NA. ‘
Once the coalition has decided on their one guy then the vote will take place in the NA.
Then the NA at large will go to parliament with one nominee only.
Everything I have mentioned above is taking place in the NA only and once they identify that nominee, then al-jubouri will hold parliament and Masum will ask the NA who is their nominee and then Masum announce the new Shia nominee for PM. tlar
Jonathan, to answer your question and be sure about it ,I would have to say NO. This is Iraq and nothing is assured over there. After years of being in this ride and learning as I went, I would bet that Badr is OUT of the SOL,period. Signing stuff in Iraq don't mean squat. It will be settled when the NA votes for one and only one.Then that one has to pass the test in parliament or do it again.
Thanks Tlar, that is what I was saying, albeit less elegantly. Could you also clarify that the mere naming a a PM candidate is not the "formation of the GOI"?
Wouldn't that only be after the PM elect has publicly presented his list of ministers of government and after the Parliment has voted in favor of that list of total ministers?
Also, is there any dickering that goes on to replace a given governmental minister with another or is that all part of the process of bargaining for votes in the first place?
Is it possible, if say the SOL says , okay in order to have say Mahdi as NA's PM candidate, we want our guy as Defense Minister.
Can that guy be stripped out of the list or is it "an all or nothing" kind of situation?
oldwazhisname, it is not a legal government until the up or down vote on the nominees picks for the ministries and the COM.
Only then do we have the complete "change" and a new government..
Not until the new PM presents his government ministers and COM is it considered a new seated government because this part has to be done by a vote in the parliament.
Once the ministers are known along with the COM, the PM elect will present them to parliament for a up or down vote.
The new PM constitutionally has to provide these names within 30 days to accomplish this.
He doesn't have to take all 30 days but he can't take longer.
Then parliament has to have a majority up or down vote on his government.
If it is a down vote meaning more vote no to his list, then the POR will pick another nominee for the PM position and the process starts all over again.
Allawi in 2010 stated he was ready to go if picked as the nominee and could seat a government within 48 hours.
Maliki never did seat his government choosing to keep all security ministries under his control which was his first violation of the constitution which he then preceded to violate over and over for the next 8 years.
It will be different this time as Iraq has seen the value of a constitution and has actually started using it as a tool of proof.
It is my belief that once a PM nominee is chosen, that his picks are already done and the Kurds and Sunni's already have negotiated with him as to what ministries they will get.
In other words his government will be voted on a few days after he is nominated and its outcome is predetermined and pre-negotiated with all sects in the coalition.
I also believe That Turki will see the government as settled upon the NA picking of a nominee that is acceptable to all and won't wait for the ministries to be announced.
I could be wrong and Turki might want to see the government seated first, but because this should have already been over and the year is slipping by, I believe he is anxious to get going with monetary change. Tlar
PS it is also my belief that Turki's definition of the term settled means that the government is basically decided. ‘
At the point the NA choose a nominee either Chalabi or Mahdi, in my mind it is a forgone conclusion Maliki is out and a new government will be in.
I personally think the monetary change is so late now that Turki may decide its over and settled even though not seated. I am very hopeful he will pull the trigger here but am fully cognizant he may wait until that government is finished and seated.
It is kind of like the term largest block. Once that was concluded and defined to be the NA, everything else has fallen into position to finish this process.
The word settled is a loose term only to be defined in Turki's mind. So it's a best guess that I am making at best. Tlar
Also,......while waiting on the GOI Turki has not stop with pushing the Monetary Reform. Most recently, the CBI signed a contract with VISA/MasterCard. IMO..........the CBI is ready to complete this.
OMG................Turki has already said this!!!!
What at great thread. Thank you to everyone.Waiting...Cautiously optimistic!
Does anyone know how many totally comprise the COM?
Are ALL the positions specifically named positions like: Minister of Defense, Minister of Security, etc. or are some positions generic positions? Thanks, Gorwell
Tlar, Great response and expansion on the fine points.
Much appreciated for you taking the time to so completely explain your perspective on this. Thank you.
Great thread. Really educational... good questions.. great replies... nice back and forth. This really has become a top notch group.
I'll take a wild guess at how many form the CoM..for some reason.. it sticks in my mind...that I remember the number 30.I BELIEVE there are 30 members of the CoM. Bueller?
Hello Blue, I thought the PM's Cabinet/COM consisted of 40 ministers and 4 of those were soveren ministries.
If I remember correctly back in 2010 after Iraq held their general elections, Maliki’s opposition decided to give their support to him because of the "Barzoni Initiative," that initiative consisted of the Kurds 40 Points, the Strategic Counsel Planning, and the Kurds were suppose to get/head one of the 4 soveren ministries which was of the security/military ministries etc,
This was the Barzoni Initiative commonly known today as the Erbil Agreement.
After Maliki got parliaments vote of confidence to be the PM "candidate" he was now allowed to "present" his cabinet before parliament to get their vote of confidence for his cabinet.
Maliki presented all of them very quickly except the four soveren ministries, those four soveren ministries never got parliaments vote of confidence because Maliki kept them and the Barzani Initiative/Erbil Agreement never got "implemented" or saw the light of day etc.
You know the rest of the story. LOL. I could be wrong, that info is just off the top of my head and it has been a while; I would have to dig up my notes but I believe it's 40 COM, and that 40 includes the 4 soveren ministries too.
Actually, I think you were right blue. It is 30. LOL. IDK
Deek... what you wrote sheds a lot of light on it.. and if it is 40 or 30.. so be it. I don't care what the number is.. just looking forward them seating the dang charactors
I also had in mind that there were key Ministers, specificly Defense and Security, that were not part of the CoM.... and you alluded to that as well. -Like I said before.. we have a good group here.
Prime Minister: Nouri al-Maliki (State of Law (SOL)/Daawa) will also be acting ministers of Interior, Defense, and Minister of State for National Security until candidates can be approved.
Deputy Prime Ministers: Saleh al-Mutlaq (Iraqiya/Hewar); Hussain al-Shahristani (SOL/Independent) — with oversight of energy policy — and acting minister of electricity [but Reuters names Ziad Tarek as
Minister for Electricity; Roz Nouri Shawes (Kurdistan Alliance (KA)/Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)), and acting minister of trade.
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Hoshyar Zebari (KA/KDP) will also be acting minister of womens’ affairs.
Minister of Finance: Rafia al-Issawi (Iraqiya/Mustaqbal)
Minister of Oil: Abdul Karim al-Luaibi (independent but associated with Daawa)
Minister of Higher Education: Ali al-Adeeb [Ali Al Adib] (SOL/Daawa) will also be acting minister of state for national dialogue (reconciliation).
[Reuters names Amer Al Khizaii as State Minister for National Reconciliation Affairs]
Minister of Housing and Construction: Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji [Reuters names Mohammed Salem Al Laban] (Iraqi National Alliance (INA)/Sadrist)
Minister of Education: Mohammed Tamim (Iraqiya/Hewar)
Minister of Industry and Minerals: Ahmed Nassar Dali al-Karbouli [Ahmad Nader Dali] (Iraqiya/Tajdid)
Minister of Justice: Hassan Shimari [Hassan Al Shumari] (INA/Fadhila)
Minister of Culture: Saadoun al-Dulaimi [Saadun Al Dulaimi] (Wassat/Constitution Party)
Minister of Communication: Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi (Iraqiya/Wifaq)
Minister of Science and Technology: Abdul-Karim al-Sammaraie (Iraqiya/Tajdid)
Minister of Environment: Sargon Lazon Sliwah [Karkis Sleiwa] (Rafidain/Assyrian Democratic Movement)
Minister of Agriculture: Izzuldin al-Doula (Iraqiya/Iraqiyoun)
Minister of Displacement and Migration: Dindar Najman (KA/Islamist Coalition), will also be acting Minister of Municipalities and Public Works
Minister of Health: Majid Mohammed Amin (KA/PUK)
Minister of Human Rights: Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani [Mohammed Shayaa] (SOL/Daawa)
Minister of Labor and Social Affairs: Nasar al-Rubaie (INA/Sadrist), will also be acting Minister of Planning
Minister of Water Resources: Mohaned al-Sa’adi (INA/Sadrist)
Minister of Transportation: Hadi al-Amiri (INA/Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI))
Minister of Youth and Sport: Jassim Mohammed Jaffar (SOL/Daawa)
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs: Ali Abdullah al-Sajeri [Ali Al Sajri] (Wassat/Constitution Party)
Minister of State and Government Spokesman: Ali Dabbagh (SOL/Daawa)
Minister of State for Parliament Affairs: Safaa al-Din al-Saafi [Safaa’din Al Safi] (SOL/Independent)
Minister of State for Provincial Affairs: Turhan Abdullah (Iraqiya/Turkman)
Minister of Tourism and Antiquities: Liwa Smisim (INA/Sadrist)
Ministers of State (without portfolio): Yassin Mohammed Ahmed (INA/ISCI); Abdul-Mehdi Hassan al-Amtari (INA/Sadrist); Hassan Radia al-Sari (INA/Hezbilah); Bushra Hussein Saleh (INA/Fadhila); Diyah al-Asadi (INA/Sadrist); Salah Mazahim al-Jabouri (Iraqiya/Hewar) Additional unnamed positions:
Minister of State for Non-Governmental Organizations (KA)