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Comment - things are shaping up for the Wednesday parliamentary meeting. The Kurds have decided on their President of the Republic (POR). The Shia and the Sunni each have picked their people for VP positions.
Negotiations are still on going for the PM position but Jubouri, the new President of the Parliament (POP) is not letting any grass grow under his feet.
Earlier this week he set up committees to re-write the budget and he has stated the budget could be passed before the government is completely formed.
I believe next week he will submit it to parliament for its first and second reading, and then they will vote and publish it as law. The SOL has all but dumped Maliki as their nominee.
Maliki said he will resign in exchange for two things. These demands will be ignored as his power base continues to erode and it has become less important to even deal with this guy.
Immunity of all charges even murder and if he gets to pick the next PM are what he wants in exchange for his resignation. What a joke.
The SOL's power base has also been eroding as many of their members (about half or more) have come out against Maliki. The SOL has said they will offer three nominees. All three have shown strong allegence to Maliki and none will end up as PM.
The coalition has also offered up three nominees. Either Chalabi or Mahdi will ultimately be the prime mininster. The SOL is simply out numbered and they can't stop it anymore.
The PM position may take a few days past Wednesday because the coalition still wants this to be seen as a smooth transition of power as does the international community, but they are prepared to go to the wall if they have to.
So even if they can't get a PM on Wednesday, it is my belief that with the passage of the budget and the new President in place, Turki will be good to go.
Even though the government is not technically complete, he will consider it as "a foregone conclusion" as to how this will end because the numbers dictate it, and he will act on monetary change.
Maliki is in deep trouble and he can't even count on the loyalty of his armed forces because he insulted them when he made his son the head of it. That and the fact that he just dismissed most of the leadership (officers) of the armed forces because he is paranoid and can no longer trust anyone.
Maliki can't attend the next session of parliament because he still has not taken the oath of the new parliament and he knows that again he would be thrown out if he were to show..
The good guys, Hakim's Marauders have pulled off a great victory for Iraq. They are in charge and building a non-sectarian government. This is the catalyst for the RV.
The actual trigger IMO is the budget along with the knowledge that the government will come out right.
The RV will happen either just before the budget is passed or within a day of the budget being passed.
Either way I am holding to North of $3.25 and before the end of this month. If it turns out I am wrong I am sure the naysayers will pick my bones clean. So I don't say it lightly. tlar