Many interesting articles keep popping up about the preliminary results of the April 30th elections. If you didn’t know any better on the election process you would guess that the State Law Coalition won the election and that Maliki would be the next prime minister.
But remember these are only the preliminary results. Also who controls the news media in Iraq? Maliki and his goons of course as I have stated in yesterday’s news letter to you. so the slant in the article below is to make you feel like he has won by telling you only half the truth.
Now let me tell you some truth and the way I believe it will play out and incidentally as I am now hearing from those contacts close to the situation in Iraq. This is going to turn out very, very differently than most expect. We should hear the final formal election results announcement on Monday May 26th.
Below is an article that came recently telling us the preliminary election results. Seems we can now count on being on track to their original legal timelines of seeing the final results.
The formal election results are coming out on Monday May 26th, as needed by law.
I do understand the election process and it is my understanding that for any one party to have a majority they will need at least 167 votes or 51% of the 328 total seats in parliament. This majority party will then be responsible for putting the new government together according to the Iraq constitution.
If you count up the votes in this article no one party achieved the needed 167 votes. Also what happened to the missing 51 votes? So it’s a bit deceiving.
What I think we will see happen is the combining of the Kurdistan, National, Citizens and United blocs for a total of 181 votes and that makes majority since its way over the needed 167. I have already seen many articles that this is in the making.
This is partly how Maliki and the State Law coalition won in 2010. A tricky political maneuver on his part by combining votes. Of course now he is saying this is improper and against the constitution and should not allowed. Why was it okay in 2010 then when it favored your party’s success? But not okay now? So now was is good for the goose is good for the gander....lol... they will have to allow it after all.
My question now is – On Monday’s news will they show us the final, final coalition that will win or just a repeat of these preliminary results made formal. I think they will announce the winning coalition and tell us how it was formed. I am also hoping to get the announcements of the other seated positions like president, vice president and all the heads of the ministries. Also the final counts on the parliamentary seats by coalition after the votes from fraudulent votes are discounted. Will they make us wait for this part till after the 10 days of the needed complaint period and then springing it on us?
So personally I do not see what all the recent hype has been about from some intel providers telling us that the State Law coalition can pick Maliki as the prime minister if he RVs. Of course we are now hearing that he also wants to pick and seat the ministers of defense, security, finance and interior, etc. Once again. I think what they meant to say is that the State Law Coalition will consider Maliki as their candidate for PM should he be able to pull off the RV in the needed timeframe (which I am being told is prior to the announcement of the formal election results on Monday…of course). Do you understand now?
Remember that when all is said and done how will the State Law Coalition get the votes needed to be the majority party and so they can have the opportunity to give Maliki a 3rd term. The chances are far and few between so I believe.
I just have tell you this allowing the PM to seat the ministers is the mistake from the 2010 election. This is why they had so many security issues and so many fraudulent contacts. This is why nothing of any significance was done in the reconstruction of Iraq or to handle the real security issues. Maliki and his goons were the security issue…get it? Basically there were no checks and balances on his power. He eliminated one by one all his political opponents and anyone who could challenge him. He corrupted the legal system with his corrupt judges.
So do you really think they (meaning the anti-Maliki coalitions) are going to let this all play out again for another 4 years and cause a stagnant government once again….RV or no RV?
In my 9/24 news letter I talked about this situation and how dangerous it is and how it was at the root of the issues they faced over the last 4 years. Are they going to go down this same road again?
I have seen many articles in the past about these blocs forming a very strong alliance against Maili's state law. They have been less vocal than the State Law Coalition (of course they do not control the news media) but they are strong and will all of a sudden come forward with their plan.
If you paid attention there are still 51 votes missing from this article 328 minus 277 = 51. So who is going to get these votes? Does it really matter if State Law picks them all up? No -since they will still only have 147 votes not enough to carry majority of 167. Sorry Maliki....lol.....
So they are still putting together coalitions and so it’s not over until the fat lady sings.
Commission: Monday election results in official newspapers and Thursday last date for receipt of complaints
She said the Electoral Commission for elections, Saturday, said that next Thursday is the last date for the receipt of complaints from the political entities on the results of the parliamentary elections.
He said UNHCR spokesman fineness Musawi's (IMN) "The Commission will be published next Monday, the election results in official newspapers as the last day to publish the results of a special election in accordance with law."
Al-Moussawi said that "The Commission will give political entities three more days expires next Thursday at the latest to receive all complaints," pointing out that "the judiciary will wait for complaints within a period of ten days."
He received a coalition of state law for first place with 96 seats in the House of Representatives next out of 328 seats. Night Kurdistan Alliance bloc with 62 seats, and the Liberal bloc with 34 seats, the Bloc citizen with 31 seats, and are united for reform with 23 seats, the National Bloc, with 21 seats, and the Arab bloc with 10 seats.
In summary let’s look at the other point of view. What if Maliki got a 3rd term?
If by some chance they do get Maliki back in as prime minister, he will have to RV first meaning rolling out the new IQD rate internationally. This way will be much quicker for us to get our exchange. If we have to wait for a new prime minister, there are documents and negotiations and a process that might have to take place all over again thus it might be longer before we see the RV. The operative word is MIGHT. So don’t panic.
There is also the issue of the Kurds. They have already talked to the UN about a possible pull out from Iraq and becoming a separate entity of Kurdistan maybe a separate nation altogether if the current situation in the government continues. Then what will happen with the oil revenue for Iraq since most of this oil revenue technically all belongs tt the Kurds if they become a separate nation. This is the main source of revenue now for Iraq. Maliki would then almost certainly be forced to drain down the reserves now in the CBI to run his government. Eventually this could become a very dangerous situation and we all believe Maliki would almost certainly also take military action against the Kurdistan region to force them back into Iraq and most importantly to regain control of the much needed oil revenues.
What about the protesters? Will they riot once they hear of the news of Maliki as the prime minister for a 3rd term? Remember he was their #1 grievance on their list of demands in 2013.
My personal way of handling this last scenario is this – if this happens and Maliki is PM again (and we get the RV) I will simply do my currency exchange and then will fade away into the sunset, leaving these stupid politicians of Iraq to fight through the Maliki dictatorship over the next 4 years once again. I can say almost certainly there will be civil war in Iraq.
He will ingrain himself yet deeper and seed himself into every aspect of their lives with new laws that solidify his power yet even more. He will remember the close call of the 2014 elections and ensure he puts in place designed laws specifically to allow him to move forward in making Iraq a puppet state of Iran. The 2018 elections will almost guarantee him success once again. There will be no shaking off this leach that is sucking the life blood from Iraq. The Saddam days are back.
But let us all be optimistic and pray that the righteous and honest politicians of Iraq will know what to do and get it done. This is a real deciding time for the nation of Iraq. We are living this history and what occurs over the next couple weeks will have lasting impacts on the world for decades to come.
If they decide to continue with the State Law and Maliki and his goons I will also feel sorry but not for long since people decide their own destiny and they too must live with it afterwards.
Peace and Luv To Ya All.