This morning I dressed Meine Kinder and we hiked up to one of my favorite spots high up in the mountains. There we sat and watched the wild flowers growing, and the grasses so green and wavy. These same Alpine pastures where only months ago snowed in and cold. Now they are busy with cows grazing and insect life. Yes - nature seems to be singing a rhythm that is unmistakably summertime.
Today I wanted to drop in and quickly give you an update on the ongoing news about the dinar revaluation process.
Yesterday marked the end of the deadline to file any election irregularities from the April 30th elections to the Iraqi Electoral Commission. As we all heard this date moved from 5/29 due to the extent of the fraud that was being reported. From what I have heard there were many issues as I tried to explain some of them in my 5/23 news letter. So then there was a battle raged in Iraq. It was not a physical battle but a political one. Most of it was kept out of the news (since the news is negative about Maliki and guess who owns most of the new media in Iraq- Bingo ! ) but I assure it was ragging but the outcome was certain and it does not look good for Maliki.
To coincide with the fraud reporting period the high court also has moved out its deadline to ratify and then announce the results. This was scheduled to be done on June 6th but now is moved out to June 10th. This was so expected came out in the news like clockwork.
So lets look forward to this period to hear of the winning coalition. I have a pretty good idea, as I have summarized before, that it would most likely be the citizens coalition. They might come out and call it something else since it will be a combination of votes from many coalitions. The citizens coalition did lead the effort however.
This massive effort began in April 2012 when we heard all the articles about a no-confidence for the prime minister. Do you remember those days? In June of the same year Dr Shabibi tried to RV and later in the year Iraqi president Talibani suffered a massive stroke. The stroke was during a session with Maliki and in the discussion the choice of words exchanged between the two was not pleasant. I suspect fowl play. This too is kept out of the news (since once again who controls the news media in Iraq?). Also this would anger Kurdistan even more if it ever did leaked out. I will say I do not have positive proof of this devious game but there is talk in the backdoor circles of Iraq when this topic comes up.
Maliki and his goons are noted for de-rallying any opposition and opponents. Their known method is either to show up at your door it the middle of the night and take you away or poison you by contaminating a water bottle provided at these meetings. In some circles we have a saying. “if you can’t beat them join them”,. Maliki’s saying is “if you can’t beet them eliminate then”. So anything is possible. The truth may eventually come out once the new government is established and things settle down.
News came out over this past weekend in a Iraq news conference with the speaker of the Iraq house. Nujaifi said during his answer to reporters' questions to the number of deputies in the Sunni lists of who was ready to ally with al-Maliki. He said they do not exceed more than four MPs.
Also just announced in same press conference that Motahedoon Coalition is ready to discuss any candidate for the National Alliance with the exception of al-Maliki. WE have seen many articles come out lately with the same news. Maliki is simple not getting the support he anticipated.
What I cannot understand is how some can still cling to the notion that Maliki has won a 3rd term as prime minister already. This news was given to us weeks ago. It was premature and inaccurate. Do you not read or listen to real, honest news from Iraq?
So here is how I am told the rest of the process will go and how long it will take to form and to announce the new Iraq government.
The formation of the next government will not take more than two months, or less as articles have told us. Even if it does take longer, as least we know they are making an effort to not repeat the 2010 lengthy election process.
Legally and constitutionally they cannot delay forming the government for a long time, as happened in past elections. The decision of the Federal Court has set a time for the formation of the new government, and refusing the open sessions of the parliament after the end of its legislative period can not happen since there still are so much long pending legislation.
After the ratification of the election results, the president calls the parliament, within fifteen days, to hold its first session, to elect a speaker and two deputies, and then elect the new president, who calls the head of the largest bloc in the Parliament to form a government within thirty days.
What I am hearing for a TimeLine:
June 10th ratification of election results and announcement of results
June 14th current Parliament session is over, the current government’s charter is ended, the new prime minister, the president and the speaker of the house (all the key or “presidential” positions) must be announced prior to this date.
June 11th – June25th president calls the parliament (anywhere within this fifteen day window) so we will know the makeup of the parliament within this timeframe.
June 26th – July 24th Parliament is to formally approve the government anywhere within this thirty day window. So now they must play out the politics and try to make everyone happy so they can work together in whatever government formation they rollout.
As I have said previously I do not expect that Iraq will take 5-6 months to form this new government as in 2010. This government should be formed quickly since they have been planning for this since 2012, as I said above.
Meanwhile we will continue to see articles on the process they are now undertaking as the head of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, Ammar Al-Hakim, discusses with the Deputy Prime Minister and leading figure within the Kurdistani Democratic Party, Ruz Nouri Shawis, the steps to compose the new government.
I hope this timeline has been helpful.
Other Significant News This Past Weekend
We have all heard about the events leading up to Iraq being excepted in to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Over this past weekend the council of 17 (the GOI) signed all paperwork to allow Iraq to enter in the biggest market of the world the WTO. Yes it is true. We now only await to hear the formal announcement from the UN on this matter and it will be final.
The United States Security Council has ensured that all the Iraq protection funds will be released and sent to the Iraq as an independent nation and then Iraq will have full control over these funds.
This membership will add much in the overall economic condition of Iraq. The access to this world’s best market will enhance the trade and business activities in Iraq. It will allow access for Iraq to export oil in the world’s biggest market.
What does this mean to us waiting for the RV?
This was huge, huge news! Did I say it was huge? All of these things will stabilize the currency of Iraq in the international market once it is rolled out and value increased. Was it necessary? Necessary to get the RV – no! Necessary for the ones who are determining when this RV will happen – yes!
The big million dollar question now is - Could there be yet more items on their checklist needed to be done prior to the RV happening? It’s what we don’t know that may be holding it up. We just have to relax and let it all play out.
Could the news get any better this past week? WOW !
Two major, major events took place and both very significant for us dinar holders.
The signing of the final paperwork for Iraq to enter the WTO and the amendment to EO 13303 freeing up the assets of the CBI, now no longer under sanctions within the USA.
It is my strong feeling we are looking at possibly around mid July towards the end of July before we see the announce of the fully, functional, stable government. I certainly hope it all happens prior to this date.
I am attempting to track events that will lead up to the RV but it is almost impossible since no one person really knows what to expect except the very high level planners. They are also constantly trying to anticipate what tasks must be completed prior to kicking off the final RV and so for even them it is all dynamic.
Think of the RV as the final grand finale during a fireworks display on the 4th of July. Some are seeing the lineup of the fireworks and think this is the finale but all we keep seeing there is yet more of the same spectacular events but no finale. But it is coming and it will not be long from now.
Remember too that there is a matter of debt payment to the Paris Treaty countries that is due within about 10 days upon release of the DFI funds. There is also a whole lot of other events and contracts hinging on having an international currency. Some have already been miraculously worked around. So knowing these events is sometimes just useless stress and anticipation on our part anyhow.
My biggest worry now is that Maliki still sits at the helm legally until June 14th so anything is possible. What monkey wrench will he try to throw into the mix to screw up the process? We have already witnessed what he is capable of in Al Anbar and Fallujah (a city in the Iraqi province of Al Anbar) and his anger with the Kurds over the recent selling of the oil. We know he has had every opportunity to fairly and honestly honor the constitution and do what is right to the Kurds. He procrastinates and stalls. Can you honestly now blame the Kurds for the workaround the GOI they are now taking? So I encourage you to pay attention to all past events when deciding who is the culprit and who is now braking the law.
However in both of these issues Maliki never presents any real solutions to resolve the conflict or adhere to the past negotiated solutions. Everything with this prime minister seems to just keep spinning around and around and nothing positive ever seems to happen.
I do not expect to see any IQD revaluation international until just prior to or after the announcements of the new government line up. This I believe has to happen and this I believe will be the grand finale.
Peace and Luv To Ya All,