I come to you today to give you an updates on the progress of rebuilding this new Iraq government and how it all relates to our revaluation process of the IQD.
First let me reiterate once again that the violence now going on in Iraq threatens to destabilize the entire country and to stretch beyond the Iraqi border. This violence is intentional by the Maliki government and will not end as long as Maliki remains prime minister during this time of provisional government. There must be a crack down and the Iraq army has the full resources to do it. So why don’t they just do it?
Yes - this violence is a bit exaggerated on the USA news channels but I assure you it is real and will have lasting effects if not stopped. It could easily be controlled if Maliki would only order his army and security forces to control it if not stop it all together. However Maliki now wants the violence and thrives on it since it is his only hope of progressing towards his goals of maintaining any power hold in Iraq. Simply put he is keeping the country on edge and in a constaint state of fear.
However it is also a double edged sword for him and he knows he is walking a fine line letting it continue. I is his curent tool for creating chaos but on the same note it could be his final demise too. Remember I said these dictators thrive on chaos. They do not want a fair and honest government since they can not operate and get away with their corruption and crimes against humanity in this kind of environment. The only real hope for the Iraq is for the “good guys” to aggressively push forward and get the new government seated as quickly as possible.
So what really is the goal of these terrorists <Daash> and just what do the want?
Listen very closely to what I am about to say next !
There was a small group called <Daash> that infiltrated Iraq from Syria. This small group contacted small bands of citizens in Iraq. These citizens were anti-Maliki government who demanded a change. It is easy to recruit when you are desperate and see no other alternatives for change. The majority of these terrorists are the same protestors that demanded the resignation of Maliki in the riots back in 2013 and early 2014. Yes – these are the same people. They simply want a change in government in Iraq and they want Maliki out.
Did it ever occur to you why now they are so active. They came from the south and were allowed to advance by the Iraq army who them decided (by orders of Maliki) to use them for political manipulation. However the threat has gotten much worst than imagined. So now if Maliki beats them he looses his advantage at this critical moment in attempting to regain control of the government. So he will not allow a full crack down until he is ready. So when will he be ready?
Currently, Baghdad is operating under a lame-duck government, as a new parliament that was elected in April has not yet selected its Cabinet ministers. It took more than nine months to seat a new government the last time Iraq underwent the process, in 2010. This time around, the State Department official said, al-Maliki and other Iraqi officials cannot risk exacerbating the political instability, and further inflaming the insurgency, by stalling a new and more inclusive government. This latest violence will only stop once the new government is seated, Maliki is gone and the real crackdown begins with the assistance of the Iraq army, security forces lead by the new prime minister and USA advisors.
Both President Barack Obama and Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, also have publically urged al-Maliki to quickly form an inclusive government that promotes the interests of all of Iraq's ethnic and religious groups. What I do not understand in this statement is that Maliki is not technically in charge of forming a new government. The National Alliance won the majority seats and so has control over this process. So it is their responsibility. Maliki must just cooperate. These are confusing messages to the public.
Last week we saw opinion from the US government and news media also change suddenly away from support for Maliki. Why did this happen all of a sudden?
These strong signals stressing the abandonment by Washington of Maliki was due to the terrorist events that unfolded in Iraq last week. In is now known the Maliki attempted a plot to use the terrorists to add pressure to parliament to give him his “national emergency. Unfortunately this plot backfired on him when parliament refused to meet his demands. The terrorists also got way out of hand and moved on much farther than Maliki thought. We also know he ordered the Iraqi army to leave weapons behind in their retreats. These weapons were later used by the terrorists to gain yet more momentum.
So for these reasons it was recommended that the National Alliance should now be considering choosing a new candidate for prime minister. We all know that the alliance has compiled their list of candidates months ago in preparation for the election.
The following names are on the table now and are to be put forward as candidates by the Alliance during the coming week. A vote on the candidate is expected to take place early in the week.
Adel Abdul Mahdi
Tariq Ahmed Chalabi
In my opinion the most likely candidates are Ayad Allawi or Tariq Ahmed Chalabi. This is why.
This past weekend articles talked about the U.S. administration would like that Ayad Allawi to take over as prime minister for the next government and put pressure on the political blocs to accept him as an acceptable candidate to the majority of the parties.
Americans are now conducting intensive contacts with the leaders of political blocs and pushing them and with a number of regional countries, except Iran and some of its allies from the Europeans, in attempt to form a partnership government in Iraq, headed by Iyad Allawi, who is accepted by Arab, American and European..
If Maliki can’t somehow weasel, convince or threaten his way back into the prime minister position for a 3rd term, he will instead submit Tariq Najim for the post of prime minister for the State of Law Coalition. I do not believe he will not have much of a chance since the other candidates far outweigh his popularity and are not associated with the State of Law coalition which is like a sour lemon on most taste buds these days….lol….(especially after this last outbreak of violence). I might add also add that no one can stop the State of Law from submitting a candidate to parliament for the PM however in my opinion it is a total waist of their time and just another show and tell ploy by Maliki to may us believe his party still has some credibility.
About the recent Article 140 rumor-
I also heard that Maliki had made a deal to implement Article 140 and that the Kurds agreed to it. This is great news however it is only a proposal put forth by Maliki. It means nothing unless the new session of parliament is held and they vote on it and accept it. I also want everyone to remember that the constitution of Iraq already provides for these disputed oil rich regions to go to the Kurdistan region. So why the necessity for any “deal” in the first place? It is only an ongoing saga between Iran and Iraq as Maliki supports the Iranian view as he is puppet of Iranian influence over Iraq. He is once again trying a last desperate move to gain support. He has had 4 years already to work out a compromise and negotiate on this issue so why all of a sudden now on the eve of the first session of parliament does he propose such a deal?
Article 140 is just an issue that causes contention and thus chaos. So it will linger as long as it is used as a political bargaining ship. Also I want to remind everyone that once Maliki is gone this article 140 issue will be clarified very quickly once and for all time since some sanity will be finally realized. So why accept any deal now? It will be one of the items in the “basket” of laws that will be published and moved forward very quickly along with the long awaited revaluation process. Good try Maliki !
So today we stand on the eve of the first session of parliament tomorrow Tuesday June 24th. This was moved up from June 30th and announced late last week. I explained why I thought this was so important in my last news letter dated 6/20.
I am saying once again this should be a pivotal week. I said (should) since I expect Maliki to find a way to sabotage the process.
Will they still hold the session or will Maliki find a way to sidetrack it? Something to be watchful for.
What we are hopeful for:
1) a fully seated parliament (including the 4 members not previously ratified)- first day. If these 4 members are not included it could cause a skew in the voting and dislodge any real progress. It is my belief these members are being withheld intentionally for this very purpose by Maliki since he has influenced the judiciary to do so. You see it is always the very simple things that he does to cause the chaos that only later shows up. Watch how this causes a mess in the voting process !
2) a new speaker of the parliament – first day
3) the voting and seating of the new Iraq President- first day
4) the voting and seating of the new Iraq Prime Minister – by end of week
5) ratifying and seating all the new ministers – by end of week
To get all this done by end of week in a very tall order. But they can do it if all goes well in the process.
Remember too that dictators like Maliki do not want a fair and honest government since they can not operate and get away with their corruption and crimes against humanity in this kind of environment. The only real hope for the Iraq is for the “good guys” to aggressively push forward and get the new government seated as quickly as possible. They know it and are attempting to do it.
I still firmly believe that we will not see any revaluation of the IQD unless Iraq has a stable and functional government and thus has a political environment that it can advance in and thrive in.
This is the definition of “stable” and “functional” that we are looking for.
This will bring us the final completion of the project to restructure the currency. This is what will get us to the banks to exchange our dinar. This is why I now follow this political election process now so closely and ignore all this other nonsense and junk intel being distributed these days. I recommend you all do the same to stay sane as we near the finish line.
Peace and Luv To Ya All,