I come to you today to give you a recent update on the election process and how this relates towards the international rollout of the IQD for Iraq.
Note: If you have not read my previous news letters from Friday 9/5 (LINK) and Saturday 9/6 (LINK), I encourage you to first read them. Today's news letter, as in all my news letters, is a continuation of the ongoing saga of the IQD RV process.
Short and Sweet again!
Today is Sunday 9/7 and we still look forward to the final “formal” announcement of the fully formed government of Iraq.
The good news is yesterday with pressure from the United States and NATO, Iraq had persuaded the political blocs to postpone the search to settle all the disputed demands until after the formation of the government, which awaits the international community.
Do you remember these 17 demands? I talked about them in my last couple news letters. These now continue to play a major role in the hold-up in getting this government fully formed. The importance and seriousness of action to respond to the demands of the six provinces will open new horizons of reconciliation and reform, however with the time deadline fast approaching this simply can not be fully resolved in time. This is all a matter still of trust. I have listed some of these demands (the more critical ones) in my 9/4 news letter.
If you read to my 9/4 news letter you will see that the options I then presented talked about whether the blocs wanted to take the path of most resistance or least resistance in getting these demands resolved in relation to getting the government formed.
Here are the 3 possible scenarios that I presented on 9/4:
1) Will they actually make the announcement of the fully formed gov’t once the voting is final? This should happen today.
2) Or will they delay telling us the results of the voting until all 17 demands are first met?
3) Or did they once again compromise and are now allowing the new government to be announced, trusting that they will meet these demands (or some of these demands) at a later date?
It appears that they are being stubborn in that option #2, the path of most resistance, is being used. Over this past 2 weeks they have demanded that all critical demands be met prior to the final formation of the government.
So what came first the chicken or the egg?
All the news we have been hearing as of lately about the blocs not sending appropriate candidates to Abadi for consideration is just leverage. This is all a political posturing in that the leaders of the blocs are using this as leverage to prevent the formation of the government from going any further until they get what they want. Plain and simple ! Is this difficult to understand?
Once the demands are met this government will be able to move forward again. However this is not going to happen in time for Tuesday’s 9/9 constitutional deadline.
So this was the bad news. Now let me tell you the compromise (the hope) that has just been told me by my contact in Iraq.
NATO especially needs the new Iraqi government in order to lay the foundations of their support in the fight of the organization of the Islamic State "Daash" and they need it like yesterday. NATO recently voted on Thursday in favor of the coalition, united now many countries in this effort.
My source pointed out that Abadi has intensified its contacts and continued closed-door meetings and individually during the last few hours with the parties in the Shiite coalition to end their differences over the distribution of ministerial portfolios (in reality this is all about the demands being met). Some politicians and blocs accused Abadi of exploiting the time factor to impose some conditions and hurry the process along.
Abadi stressed in a press statement released today in Iraq that he "will not accept any conditions that are unconstitutional" attributing the reasons for the delays are not his fault in the first place. In that late submission of the cabinet candidates and the insistence of some of the blocks on offering candidates that do not meet the required experience and integrity are at the root of the delay. (but in reality we know differently…. don’t we?)
So where do they go from here?
I also learned that to help solve this deadlock and get some form of government in place by Tuesday, the political blocs are to postpone the search to settle all the disputed demands until after the formation of the government, which awaits the international community. I guess they chose option #3 after all, much like they did in the 2010 election. Once again they had to compromise and are now allowing the new government to be announced, trusting that they will meet these demands (or some of these demands) at a later date.
Will these issues ever be settled?
I believe they will as I am told this is a mandate now with the new government much like the Erbil agreement of 2010. There are times set to address these issues as priorities in parliament shortly after the announce of the new government. I believe this new government will address these issues, unlike the Maliki GOI.
When will they announce the new government?
They will vote on the minister line-up on Monday and then make the announcement. Meanwhile they will continue through Sunday to negotiate with all the blocs as they are now sending over more appropriate candidates to Abadi for consideration for the remaining contested ministries.
The American Secretary of State, John Kerry will visit Baghdad after the announcement of the new government to hold talks with Abadi to discuss the formation of an alliance to fight al "Daash" not only in Iraq and Syria only, but each area where they are found. This sounds to me they are going after these guys no matter where they are.
President Barack Obama said last Thursday, "there must be a complete and competent Iraqi government and we continue to press to make it happen. He also said the possibility that Iraqi forces will be more effective, as a result.
So today’s news is a mixed bag of disappointment and hope. We can see they really, really want and need to have the announcement of some similarity to a fully formed government on Monday. This government must be operational and stable even if it is not “fully complete in the full context of the Iraq constitution and is a de facto government.
But will it really be “fully” formed in this upcoming announcement in the context of requirements necessary to give us the currency revaluation too?
They are ready to implement this de facto government. It is legal and they can do it. They do not want to use it and are trying to avoid it. The option is being worked out in case they must go forward anyhow and can not get all the ministers seated. The critical ministers like the Foreign Affairs, Security and Defense ministers are all done as well as the 3 vice presidents.
How can they do this? The blocs will not allow a complete government until all the demands are met. So I am not sure fully how they intend to handle this.
One way I am hearing from my source is that the government will move from the Maliki provisional government to the permanent de facto government. This is the most important issue before they start sending weapons and staging equipment. They do not want it in the wrong hands of the Maliki GOI.
But it sounds like being in a de facto status they plan to exercise its power and serve its functions from what ministers they do have sworn in by Monday if they can not get the “full” government done on time. If they plan to call this de facto a “fully” formed government this will be without being legally or officially established in the full context of their constitution since there will still be ministers (less critical ones) not yet seated.
Having said all this I now need to add this could all change by Monday. It could change since they still have today, Sunday, to push ahead to try to get all the ministers selected. They need to do this prior to the next parliamentary session on Monday. They definitely will not meet all the 17 demands but at least they might not have to use a de facto mode of government, thus the RV may still definitely be in play.
As I explained in my recent past news letters, we should not have expected any announcements until these demands are settled or they come up with a palatable solution to address then, and this is exactly what is trying to be worked out.
Then when can we expect the RV?
The big questions now are –
How does this “de facto” government effect the RV from happening?
Will they hold off now on the RV due to not officially having a “fully” seated government and instead working out of a de facto government?
How long do they plan to work out of the de facto government?
Do they need the RV as part of the effort to quiet down the citizens as they prepare to spearhead the effort against DAASH and ISIS?
I based my info solely on what my Iraq contact close to the government has told me today and it seems more accurate information is now flowing my way.
Remember no one knows it all since the politics are crazy in this election and this is a very dynamic and fluid situation.
I am still being told the RV will occur just prior to or just after the announcement of the “fully” formed government. The CBI is ready and all the pieces are in play.
Peace and Luv To Ya All,