Tlar Comment - Here is where we are.
We have a new (POP) President of Parliament - (Jubouri - a Sunni who has proven to be not only effective right out of the shoot but an excellent parliamentarian)
We have a new (POR) President of Iraq - (Masum - a Kurd with a great background that is to extensive to list in one sentence. So hear is a little about him,
And Mohammed Fuad Masum, Khadr was born in Koya in 1938, a leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by former President Jalal Talabani, is married and has five daughters, was educated in Al-Azhar University in Cairo, and received a doctorate degree,
including in Islamic philosophy in 1975, a former professor at the College of Arts at the University of Basra, a lecturer at the Faculty of Law and the Faculty of Education at the University of Basra, too.
And infallible first prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq in the early nineties, and the first president of the National Council of Iraq after the fall of the former regime,
and the Chairman of the Board in writing the Iraqi constitution in its infancy, and one of the founders of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in 1975,
and has long experience in the field of political, social and cultural, a companion trail Jalal Talabani and very close to the political approach in dealing with the neutral position and all the Iraqi parties.
To finish this we yet need a PM.
Turki told us that he wanted to see the government situation settled. Here is his exact words: "The central bank will proceed without hesitation to apply the project raise zeros from the local currency in case settled political and economic situation of the country. "
The above is what we know has happened, so what’s happening next?
Jubouri has scheduled the next parliament to convene on August 5th because they have to sort out a problem.
The SOL has not negotiated in good faith and wants to nominate either Maliki or a puppet of his even though they know he can't win.
We know Maum will call the largest block to name their nominee. Jubouri is setting the SOL up to fail.
Maliki went to the courts day before yesterday to have them rule and declare the SOL as the largest block which would give Maliki the legal right to drag this on and on as the SOL would endlessly be putting up one PM after another and then another long period of time before that PM introduced his COM only to be voted down.
The SOL could have introduced one nominee every 15 days forever because they have 95 MP's.
He did this because he knows that the definition of "largest block" is the key to solving the last part of the puzzle to get an acceptable PM nominee that everyone can feel good about
and he was trying to make sure that the control was in his hands and he could block any attempt for the coalition to present a nominee.
The courts would not rule on this matter and even though Maliki lied, claiming they had already done so, telling parliament the SOL was the largest block.
The courts who have over the last month consistently ruled against Maliki, put out an article immediately denying they had even ruled on it.
Jubouri gave a speech claiming that the definition of the largest block is the group that has the most MP'S. By this definition that group would be the coalition having over 200 MP'S consisting of Shia, Sunni's, Kurds and Turkmen.
Another approach by the coalition is to just destroy the SOL by a process of stealing their members that also don't want Maliki. 3 of the blocks in the SOL have shown a great interest in leaving the SOL because the leadership continues to insist on Maliki and they are not Maliki supporters.
There is a total of 178 MP's in the National Alliance and by definition they could be the largest block, Not the SOL. 95 of those are listed as SOL guys with the balance 83 being coalition.
It would only take 10 MP defectors from the SOL to undermine the SOL block and change the dynamics.
Their has been a few articles showing that the coalition is already working both plans and Jubouri is redefing "the largest block."
The easy way would be to pull defectors. The other way using parliament itself might require a legal ruling.
As soon as this is sorted out which should be in the next few days, it is expected that Jubouri will quickly re-assemble parliament and the process to nominate a non sectarian acceptable PM will be finished in one day.
Maliki will be officially out of a job. Either way it is my belief that this will be done before the scheduled date of the 5th of August for parliament to reconvene.
I am unsure yet of the outcome or which way will win out, but that's the hold up.
How they decide what constitutes the "largest block" is the most important thing yet to be overcome but I am sure it will come out right.. Here are a few articles on this situation and I have included a writeup I did on this two days ago. Tlar
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Three important blocks to leave Al-Maliki's coalition if he insisted that the largest bloc
-An informed source said that three blocks a larger weight in the State of law Coalition informed the national reference of Najaf as they emerge from the State of law Coalition to immediately be declared National Alliance Nuri al-Maliki's State of law is the largest bloc.
-The source said Hadi al-Ameri, head of the Badr organization, Hussain Al-Shahristani, Chairman of the independent Al-khudhair block President Dawa Iraq organization resolved to stop the adventures of Nouri al-Maliki that no longer threaten national consensus but unanimously in most serious threatening moments need compatibility.
-They said these leaders respect the declaration statement, the Shiite National Alliance Dr. Jaafari's speech before about a month from now in the presence of Mr. Ammar al-Hakim Al-khudhair and Nouri al-Maliki himself along with Hadi Ameri as the national coalition is the largest bloc in the Parliament, which will form the next Government
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Tlar Comment - it comes down to this. Who's interpretation will the courts go with and what determines the biggest block. Maliki's interpretation, or the coalition (Jubuori).
Jubouri says it is whoever has the most MP'S on the day they vote and Maliki comtinues to insist he won the election and they are the owners. Let me simplify.
Jubouri will win this argument in the court if they will hear the case and make a ruling and when they come to that conclusion through the courts, the coalition will by pass the SOL altogether.
The SOL as a political party will have committed suicide and will become irellevant altogether maybe even no lionger existing as a major party.
Constitutional interpretation will determine how this ends. Very nice job Jubouri. What a man. What a Sunni. tlar.
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Open talks on forming government amid controversy determine the largest bloc
President of the Republic was sworn Jubouri and adjournment of Parliament to August 5 next
BAGHDAD - morning
Coinciding with the election of the parliament yesterday in its first Thursday of Kurdish blocs candidate Mohammed Fuad Masum, President of the Republic and the swearing began talks on forming the next government amid controversy over naming the largest parliamentary bloc.
The President of the Parliament decided to raise Salim al-fifth meeting of the Council to the fifth of August, which included the election of the next leader of the Kurdistan Alliance Fuad Masum, president of the Republic of Iraq by a majority vote of those present.
After the end of the counting process announced Jubouri that the total number of voters was 269 votes, the right of which amounted to 228 false 41 votes, gaining Fuad Masum on 211 votes, while his rival, Hussein Musawi on 17 votes and thus announced Fuad Masum, president of the Republic of Iraq.
The vote came on the infallible president of the republic after the withdrawal of his rivals, where he was declared MP for the rule of law Hanan al, which got 37 votes in the first round, withdrew from the competition,
"in deference to the desire of" the chairman and members of the National Alliance, and demanded that the candidate Fuad Masum "clear position" of the issues of unit Iraq, Kirkuk and oil.
The MP for the coalition of civil ultra-Sheikh Ali, withdrew his candidacy from the competition after receiving 10 votes in the first round, while the candidate Hussein Musawi appended after the results of the ballot on three votes.
As a result, parliament speaker Salim al not resolve the position of president of the republic not to get any of the candidates, totaling 93 candidates on a sufficient number of votes.
Before the end of the session resulted in an elected president Fuad Masum sworn in before members of the House of Representatives and the President of the Federal Supreme Court, vowing to preserve the Constitution in all its provisions.
The request of the Presidency of the infallible Parliament speech laying out his approach to the presidency, which will take in the presence of security missions and major political and economic,
"he said, adding that" Parliament Speaker Salim al showed his approval and will set a later date to give a speech the President of the Republic. "
As a result, began talks on forming the next government amid controversy over naming the largest parliamentary bloc says the outskirts of the National Alliance,
he points out, while the largest coalition of state law in the WIN coalition that he is such a bloc with the candidate through its adherence to the prime minister for a third term.
And on media leaks on the determination of the largest parliamentary bloc .. denied judicial authority issued a new decision in this regard. Her spokesman said Judge Abdul Sattar Bayraktar in a press statement that "the Federal Supreme Court did not issue a new decision regarding the largest parliamentary bloc, only that which was released in the year 2010."
The Federal Court has considered, after elections in 2010, the National Alliance, the largest bloc in the House of Representatives, which has allowed him to form the current government, headed by the leader of a coalition of state law, Nuri al-Maliki.
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Hakim: attention directed to the National Alliance to present a candidate for prime minister widely accepted
July 25, 2014
BAGHDAD - ((eighth day))
The head of the Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim, "The eyes are on now to the National Alliance to seal his options and offers a candidate widely accepted by the Iraqi people, and reaffirms its commitment to the directives and recommendations of the supreme religious authority."
-He said in his speech Balahtphalah held by his office in Baghdad Day International Jerusalem "That means completing the steps to build the political process successful reassuring that will result from the team work efficiently harmonious holds a vision and a project and a clear program in the state administration,"
pointing out that "adherence to these recommendations will be an important input to succeed to seeing political stability and security stability followed a unified position in the face of terrorism that has ravaged the country. "
-Hakim and feet, according to a statement of the Supreme Council, thanks and appreciation to the Vice-presidential candidates who withdrew their candidacy,
pointing out that this indicates a great sense of responsibility for their contribution to the concentration of efforts and facilitate the process of election of the President of the Republic.
-He called on the international community and the Arab and Islamic world in the International Day of Jerusalem, to stop lining up with the rights of the Palestinian people and the victory of the right lost against injustice and arbitrariness of the Zionist military and Makinth brute.
-He also called for a boycott of the Zionist entity, politically, economically and in other areas and the formation of strong pressure by the actor, as well as the freezing of relations and suspended.
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Let me try to clarify what I am saying. Jubouri just read the rules and determined the largest block is the NA of which everybody in the NA is a part of. The total block consists of 178 MP's.
The SOL has 95 of those MP's the coalition has 83. But the blocks that are not SHIA, the Sunni's the Kurds and the Turkmen have the balance of the MP's out of 326 or they control 148 MP'S combined.
So the NA (Shia) is determined to be the largest block and it is the NA who has the right to nominate a PM, not just the SOL.
To pull this off the coalition Shia's must either get defectors from the SOL to align with them or they must get the SOL itself to nominate specific acceptable candidates such as Chalabi or Maudi.
To control the most votes they must get about 10 MP's away from the SOL to join with them which would give them 93 MP'S to the SOL's 85.
That would be enough to allow the coalition to make the nomination either by open vote or by secret ballot.
The coalition can do neither at present because they would loose and the SOL would nominate Maliki.
The other way and the way they have attempted to do since the end of the elections is to convince the SOL that if they want to remain relavent, they should run Chalabi or Mahdi or both as the nominees acceptable to the Sunnis, Kurds and Turkemen and the Shia coalition.
That way the NA would present a unified nominwee/nominees that everyone could vote yes to.
A real election. The SOL has stone walled as we know. They have waffled but they always come back to Maliki is our guy.
This late in the game I believe the coalition strategy has now changed and they will take advantage of the cracks in the SOL and get a re-alignment of MP's to control this.
I believe the decision was made today to quit trying to convince the SOL leadership of anything and to just pick them apart asking defectors to join the coalition ranks to build a majority in the NA.
That is the hold up. It will work but it will take a few days to maybe a week to be sure that they have the votes.
They have let the SOL know of this plan by earlier threatening to do this in an attempt to get them to come around, and that is why Maliki went to the judges to get a court order that the SOL was the largest block.
It was his last attempt to thwart this move. We will just have to be patient but I believe their is enough desention in the SOL that it won't take long to pull the defectors over to the coalition. tlar
Thanks tlar . At least we know that things are still being done over there and NOT waiting for the 5th of August! POP and POR put thier heads together, use the constitution and snowball the SOL.
I like it. Go RV!!
P.S. any of you people that have an inside track to Randy, please see if HE will jump in here and say what he has to say.
UPDATE >>> The NA has been judged to be the "biigest block" meaning that it will come down to a vote and each of the 178 members will have a vote and can vote the way they want.
The coalition is trying to get as many of the defector SOL guys to vote with them on who will be the nominee from the NA.
IMO with all the dissention in the SOL that should be done quickly.
I am keeping my fingers crossed. tlar
Keep thinking we're going to have a surprise Parl session next week and move this along.
Nothing says they have to wait until Aug. 5th. :)
Tlar, one question.
I apologize if you covered this before.
The central bank will proceed without hesitation to apply the project raise zeros from the local currency in case settled political and economic situation of the country.
What is your understanding of the economic situation they may be looking for?
I have heard some say that certain laws need to be put into effect before an RV, banking laws being one aspect.
Appreciate any thoughts you may have.
Please correct me if I am wrong:
I want to make sure I understand the process: The Kurds had a vote on their two nominees for President. The one who won that vote went on to be elected President by the full Parliament.
The NA will now do the same thing for the PM position.
If all 90 of the SOL members of the NA vote for Maliki, then Maliki will be presented as their PM nominee to the full Parliament.
However, it is very unlikely that Maliki will get the votes necessary from the enitire Parliament to retain the PM position.
So I am not too worried even if he is the NA nominee for PM.
What does concern me is that If the NA is unable to get defections so that a non-Maliki is voted on to be the PM nominee...then this process could drag on for quite awhile.
Sorry if this has already been asked and answered.
This is all for now but Tlar may respond to the questions and we will add if he does