- Ramadan is almost over and we are in a holding pattern until Thursday as the Iraqi's celebrate the great feast, Eid al Fitr.
This is a 3 day holiday holds the same importance to Muslims as Christmas is to Christians. The NA has been determined to be the biggest block and that argument is over.
In 2010 both the heads of the SOL and Maliki had signed a document to that effect even though they have now called it a forged document.
The end run Maliki tried to do by getting what was his puppet court to say the SOL is now the biggest block, has failed as the courts refused to hear the case telling Maliki they ruled on it in 2010 and that ruling stands.
The SOL is starting to splinter into groups that are unhappy with the leadership because of their staunch support of Maliki.
The Badr block (22 MP's) a prominent member of the SOL has now officially joined the coalition changing the dynamics of the NA.
There has been no announcement from Jaafari's group nor the DAWA group both SOL components, as of yet as to whether they will join the coalition officially, but as these block are small it makes no difference.
The coalition has announced they will pick their nominee right after Eid al Fitr. The dynamics of the NA are changed enough that Maliki is only now pushing the SOL to make him just an MP. He is still hoping to maintain his immunity.
Many articles since yesterday have surfaced where the SOL is saying he will just be an MP and have no power over the sovereign state anymore. I think they are cautiously testing the waters on this subject
The SOL has also admitted they have been beaten and are now finally willing to talk about nominees other than Maliki. It appears that document they signed in 2010 which acknowledges the NA as the largest block was the straw that broke this camel’s back.
The SOL has become almost irrelevant to the process of picking the next PM at this point and I don't believe anybody in the coalition has any real interest in negotiating with them other than passing lip service.
Between now and Monday (hopefully sooner) the NA will set about the task of nominating either Chalabi or Mahdi. There is a short list of four potential nominees but 2 of them should be removed quickly off the list and this should come down to Mahdi or Chalabi by then.
Once the NA determines who will be the nominee, al Jubouri (POP) will then reconvene parliament and Masum (POR) will then ask the NA to announce their nominee. At that point we have a government.
By constitutional law the new PM will be given 30 days to construct a government which means assign Ministers and choose a Council Of Ministers (COM).
I believe mostly because of the severity of the problems facing Iraq and the speed of which this process has been moving, he will fast tract that into a couple of days.
Both Chalabi and Mahdi have had a couple of months already to think about this.
The PM will then submit his new government to parliament and parliament will vote yes or no. If per chance it is voted no (not likely), then the POR will pick a new nominee from parliament at large. The constitution is loosely written here and leaves the POR open to a great deal of latitude. It states it this way:
"Noteworthy in this respect is the almost sensational amount of presidential discretion that exists in the case the first PM nominee fails. The president's job, in that case, is simply to find “a new candidate”.
Yes, you read that correctly – article 76-3 of the Iraqi constitution. It doesn’t say which bloc the second candidate should come from, just that it should be a “new candidate”.
Apart from the general age and education requirements of article 77, there is, in other words, nothing much to go by. In theory, then, the president’s mandate in the potential case of a second PM nomination could be interpreted as using his political skills to select whomever he thinks has the greatest chance of carrying an absolute majority in the Iraqi parliament.”
As we can see either way the coalition will win this because the POR is a part of the coalition. It will not come to this because when the Shia put up any non Maliki nominee or non Maliki puppet PM nominee, the Kurds and Sunni's have already said they will vote for him.
Anyway, that's about where we are for now.
Keep in mind that the POP wasn't even in office until almost the middle of the month and the POR was only elected last week. Things have been moving very fast up until Eid al Fitr which started our Sunday night, and it will start up again tomorrow.
I don't look for any movement on the RV until this government is complete and Maliki is out.
The outside day is August 8th.
That's when the clock will begin on the RV which should be within days of the government being done (Turki a couple of months ago said this -
"The central bank will proceed without hesitation to apply the project raise zeros from the local currency in case settled political and economic situation of the country. "
Iraqi's are on a vengence to get this done. They are catching up for government stagnation over the last eight years and should get the budget and lots of economic laws passed fast.
This parliament has already started pushing laws through as there has been many new laws posted in the Gazett in the last two weeks. tlar